Homes across the GTA continued to sell, with steady activity following three consecutive 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada—the first time this has happened since the 2009 financial crisis. While analysts anticipated a more robust second half of the year, there is still optimism for a positive shift in the market in the coming months despite September’s more moderate performance.
“The annual improvement in September home sales was more than matched by the increase in new listings over the same period. This resulted in a better-supplied market and increased negotiating power for buyers re-entering the market. The ability to negotiate on price, led to moderate year-over-year price declines, particularly in the more affordable condo apartment and townhouse segments, which are popular with first- time buyers,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.
As mentioned earlier, home sales were up on a yearly basis, with sales rising to 4,996 a 7.6 per cent increase across the region. However, while sales ticked higher, so did available listings. Total inventory remained elevated at 25,612 properties for sale. This resulted in an average sales price of $1,107,291, reflecting a 3 per cent increase month-over-month but down 1 per cent year-over-year. To highlight the supply-demand imbalance, the ten-year historical monthly average for active listings is 16,641, indicating a 53 per cent surplus of homes for sale compared to typical levels. Meanwhile, the historical average for sales in September is 7,747, marking a 35 per cent deviation from the norm.
Detached homes across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) continued to perform strongly, with the average sale price soaring to $1,423,056. This represents a robust 10 per cent increase in sales compared to the same period last year, further underscoring the desirability of detached properties in the region. In tandem with higher sales, inventory levels also rose to 11,241 homes, marking a significant 33 per cent year-over-year increase. The increased supply ensures that potential buyers have a wider selection, even in a competitive market.
Condominium sales, on the other hand, faced ongoing challenges, with the average sale price at $682,542. A total of 1,312 condo sales were recorded in the month, reflecting a market largely stagnant compared to last year but a significant -34 per cent below the ten-year monthly average. Meanwhile, inventory levels have risen steadily, reaching 8,981 active listings, an astonishing 77 per cent increase from historical averages, giving buyers a wide array of choices despite the slower sales pace.
The outlandish stat of the month comes from the townhouse sector. For the first time, there were over 2,000 active listings, representing a staggering 107 per cent increase from the preceding ten years of September data. With such an abundance of inventory, buyers have the unique opportunity to capitalize on this surplus, with the average sales price settling at $982,656.
Semi-detached homes also showed resilience, with the average sale price reaching $1,090,749, reflecting a 6 per cent increase from the previous month while holding steady year-over-year. Inventory rose to 1,333 properties, indicating a 23 per cent year-over-year increase. Sales activity began to pick up as well, with 446 homes sold, marking a 4 per cent increase from last month and an 11 per cent improvement year-over-year. The semi-detached market is gaining momentum as buyers take advantage of the stable pricing and increased availability.
Looking ahead, the Greater Toronto Area real estate market remains in a delicate balance. While interest rate cuts and increased inventory provide more opportunities for buyers, price stability across various property types will likely depend on how quickly demand catches up with supply. As we move into the final months of the year, both buyers and sellers will be keeping a close eye on economic conditions and market trends, with cautious optimism for stronger activity in the coming months. The GTA continues to be a desirable region, but the market's performance will hinge on its ability to absorb the elevated levels of inventory while maintaining buyer confidence.
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